The variety of folks contaminated with coronavirus in properties in England has fallen to five,600 a day, from 8,000 final week, statisticians recommend.
The estimate relies on swab exams of 19,000 folks in 9,000 households by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics.
Some scientists have stated reaching a low stage of instances was key to easing the lockdown additional.
Check and hint programmes had been launched in England and Scotland final week to trace contacts of latest instances.
The ONS study of adults and children in private households suggests there are 39,000 new infections every week in England.
It estimates that one in 1,000 folks had coronavirus locally between 17 and 30 Could, not counting these staying in hospitals or care properties.
That is down from final week’s estimate of 1 in 400.
The figures for England are based mostly on a small variety of optimistic swab exams – 21 folks in 15 households – so there may be some margin for error.
However as a result of everybody within the family is examined, whether or not they have signs or not, the outcomes are regarded as a extra correct image of how many individuals are presently contaminated by the virus.
There may be additionally a delay between modifications in folks’s behaviour and the variety of folks contaminated, so it could take a number of extra weeks of outcomes to work out the actual influence of lockdown measures being eased.
Constructive exams down
Based mostly on last week’s ONS estimate of 8,000 daily infections, some scientists advising the federal government warned in opposition to enjoyable lockdown measures too rapidly.
They stated ready till instances fell additional would make the virus simpler to manage, and provides take a look at and hint programmes extra probability of succeeding.
On the premise of this research, “the variety of folks in England testing optimistic has decreased in latest weeks”, the ONS says.
The outcomes present that solely 29% of those that examined optimistic for coronavirus stated they’d any signs on the time of the take a look at.
These working exterior the house had been extra prone to take a look at optimistic for the virus than home-workers, with healthcare employees and social care employees at highest danger of being contaminated.
One other sort of take a look at – which seems to be for antibodies, which construct up when the physique fights an infection – was carried out on 885 folks in households as a part of the identical research.
These recommend that round 7% of individuals in England have beforehand had a coronavirus an infection in some unspecified time in the future.
This does not imply they’re shielded from the virus sooner or later, as a result of it’s nonetheless not clear how lengthy immunity lasts.
However it does give a sign of what quantity of the inhabitants may need had the virus already – whether or not they knew it or not.